Canadian Oil Sands Reserve Estimates: How Much Is There Really?
You have likely heard of the large size of the Canadian oil fields. Records indicate that this oil field is so large that it may be larger than anything in the world, including the large deposits located in the Middle East. Through investigation and research, scientists working for various organizations are able to give us an estimate on the oil reserves located in this area. It can be helpful to know what the actual reserves amounts are if you are an investor.
In 2007, the Alberta government put in place the Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) and gave them the job of determining more information on the oil available. They estimated that in 2007, there were about 173 billion barrels of crude bitumen that are recoverable from the three Alberta oil sands regions. That is, this is the economically recoverable product (due to the high costs of extraction of deep levels of the bitumen.) This was taken into consideration based on the US $62 per barrel cost in 2006, up to the likely rise of US $69 per barrel by 2016. It was complete based on the same technology in play today.
This study showed that only about 10 percent of the amount of bitumen located in the Alberta oil sands could be in use. The government determined that the Athabasca oil sands located here contained about 35 billion barrels of surface mining product. There were an additional 98 billion barrels of bitumen recovered using in-situ methods. Although there was some doubt in the information provided in this area, it is widely believed by the international oil industry that the figures are accurate (though many believe there is much more available for mining.) The figures of the reserves placed the Canadian oil sands region in Alberta to be the second largest in the world, right behind Saudi Arabia.
There is a lot of debate and concern over the estimates recovery rate in the Alberta oil sands. The estimates given were assuming a recovery rate of about 20 percent of bitumen in place. This means that only 20 percent of the amount of bitumen located in the Alberta region can be in use. Yet, this is not the recovery rate that is believed to be accessible by the producers themselves. The oil producers believe that about 60 percent of the bitumen located here are removable with very little effort through the steam assisted gravity drainage method (SAGD) which would drastically change the picture.
Since 1967, only about three percent of the bitumen has been extracted from the region. When considering that the producers are able to increase the number of barrels per day they are extracting to 3 million per day by the year 2015, this means that the Athabasca oil sands reserves would provide crude oil, at that rate, for the next 170 years.
Alberta Oil Sands Productions
Who are the players in the Alberta oil sands? If you are considering investing in this region and the oil sand production here, you may want to learn a bit more about the players involved. There are several and each one has an opportunity to offer a range of benefits. The Canadian oil sands are an ideal investment because of the large size of oil fields located here and the amount of bitumen that is located in the region. There is no doubt that the product you want to invest in is located here, but knowing the players in the oil sands production will help you make better decisions in investment here.
Historically Forward
In 1967, the first commercial organization to open a plant in the region did so. It was the Great Canadian Oil Sands Limited Company, which later became Suncor Energy. At that time, it produced just 30,000 barrels per day, a fraction of what it produces today. Nevertheless, the synthetic crude oil began flowing. Unbelievably, the decline in world oil prices just after this hit hard and kept the area from being fully under development for some time. In 1978, the second company got to business after the oil crisis that happened in 1973. Syncrude is still a powerful player in the Canadian oil sands region.
Oil prices peaked in 1979, which caused the National Energy Program to hold up any foreign investments into this industry, a devastating blow to many would be investors. Because prices began to fall again and would hit very low levels in the 1980′s, a third mine was opened at a delayed rate. It was under operation by Shell Canada, but did not official get into business until 2003.
Since this time, though, the demand for oil has grown incredibly, and oil prices are at an all time high. Each of the mines that are operational have increased the amount of crude oil they are producing, which is an effort to improve the skyrocketing demand shortage. New mines are also in the works to help improve the amount available.
In 2005, the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board provided production as follows:
• Syncrude Mine: Production at 262,000 barrels per day
• Suncor Mine: 195,000 barrels per day
• Shell Canada Mine: 169,000 barrels per day
A year later, the amount of oil produced has increased from 760,000 barrels per day (in total including the In Situ Projects) to 1.126 million barrels per day. Increases for mining are likely to continue.
When you look at all oil produced by Canada, this is 47 percent of it. The oil sands are the source of 62 percent of Alberta’s total oil production as well. What’s more, the Canadian oil sands not nearly tapped yet and the government in Alberta believes these levels can rise significantly into the future.